Cinema Cemetery

The End of the Superhero Movie

Disclaimer:

The following is my own opinion and not the opinion of any studios I have worked for in the past or will work for in the future. All specific information comes courtesy of publicly accessible articles, please see the bibliography for more information.

Whether you’re a hardcore comics fan, a general fan of all things superhero, or someone completely bored by the glut of cinematic super-movies, we can all agree on the following: Superhero movies are absolutely dominating the cinema.

Using BoxOfficeMojo, I looked at the top 20 earners from 1996 to 2018 and marked down the films that were superhero oriented. It’s clear just how deeply this flavor of film has permeated popular culture! There hasn’t been a such a heavy proliferation of a single type of film like this since the Western or the Musical.

“Today the (superhero) genre accounts for close to 10% all movie tickets sold in the United States and that market share is even higher internationally. Stand-alone movies have turned into franchises, franchises have become cinematic universes and now this formerly ridiculed genre is considered one of the safest bets in Hollywood. Nothing lasts forever though, and there are more than a few tell-tale signs that the genre is starting to come apart at the seams.” (9)

Given just how many films of the same type are continuously pumped into release,

“...it’s...difficult to imagine that every superhero fan will be able to afford seeing them in theaters, seeing how tickets range from $12-$17. Also, too many good movies coming out at once could mean that certain objectively great films will be overshadowed by each other, created a totally oversaturated market. What’s more, with movies like ‘Infinity War,’ which is a crossover film, audiences have to remember a significant number of backstories. This could deter people from enjoying an otherwise good film — but only time will tell which film trends arise this year.” (5) 

In order to determine just how long this superhero craze will last, let’s look at the rise and fall of two similar film fads, the Western and the Musical, to see how they stack up against the Superhero movie.

“In a culture industry fueled by formula, no genre has been more important to Hollywood than the western. From the birth of "the movies" through the classical Hollywood era (1920-1960), the western played not only a vital role as a popular narrative form — and one that would comprise nearly a fifth of all feature films from the silent era through the 1950s — but also in shaping the business of filmmaking itself.” (1)

The Musical rose to prominence after the Western had fully taken over and outlasted the Western by over a decade. Despite this, Musicals never found a way back into mainstream consciousness.

“The genre’s lack of realism and inherent camp can certainly be alienating for modern audiences, and they may appear out of place in the cinematic landscape of today, as a result. But it hasn’t always been this way.” (3)

“The death of the Hollywood musical has more in common with Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War than it does, say, the recent Mama Mia! Here We Go Again. There was a time when musicals were the must-see films in town, rather than the endless sequels and remakes of superhero movies that we have today.” (4)

So what changed? What can we learn from the burst bubbles of the past?

“Westerns provide many timeless pleasures--tough guy heroes, action set pieces on horseback, adventures in magnificent landscapes, good triumphing over evil. It's all there already in arguably the first narrative film ever made, The Great Train Robbery.” (10)

Now, already I’m going to draw some parallels between the Western and the Superhero story. There’s usually a sense of justice, right, and individualistic heroism that typifies both stories. Where the heroic gunslinger would have subtle superpower, quickest draw in the west or jumping from train car to train car, modern superheros have more obvious powers, flight for example. 

“Though high-end Hollywood westerns all but disappeared during the early 1930s — following the failure of several big-budget epics in 1930-31, just as the costly conversion to "talkies" and the full impact of the Depression hit the industry — the genre still flourished with low-budget series and serial production. But more expensive production resumed late in the decade: 1939…” (1)

Unlike modern vfx-heavy blockbusters, movies back then often relied on spectacular scenery to wow the audience.

“the fact that most films were shot outdoors or on open-air stages, because of the requirements of early film stock and cameras, among other factors, reinforced the preference for ‘outdoor’ subjects like the western.” (1)

“By 1958-59, 8 of the Top 10 shows were westerns; a year later there were 48 westerns on television, including 30 in prime time.That was the last gasp of the western as Hollywood production staple, however. By the 1960s, the western had peaked both as a viable Hollywood commodity and as a national myth to ease America's rural-urban transformation, in part brought low by a combination of market saturation and generic exhaustion. The form has endured, of course, but primarily via isolated exercises in nostalgia or parody or art-film revisionism.” (1)

“Exacerbating the problem is the rejection of cowboy movies by international audiences, particularly the Chinese. So even as filmmakers have become more interested in incorporating a diversity of viewpoints, they have hit against what appears a global demographic ceiling.” (10)

The Superhero film doesn’t have this problem. Superhuman abilities are a fantasy of many cultures and explosions and cg robot fights translate far better internationally than saloon intrigue. 

So the Western had been regularly present in film-making from the birth of narrative cinema to the late nineteen fifties. That’s quite the run! Keep in mind though, the average movie ticket in 1950 was 46 cents, adjusted for inflation that’s only $4.80. Theater attendance may be down, but the cost of a single ticket has been artificially inflated to allow for continued profits.

While the Western was often violent and brooding, the Musical adopted a cheery, over-the-top nature that resonated with mass audiences!

“From the very first feature length “talkie”, 1927’s The Jazz Singer, Hollywood was all musicals all the time.” (2)

“Film studios in the early 30’s competed to outdo one another with over the top spectacles, churning out a glut of formulaic musical revues. However cash strapped audiences suffering through the Great Depression quickly tired of such repetition and demanded more. Enter Busby Berkley, a Broadway dance director snatched up by Warner Brothers to save the movie musical from obscurity. Berkley’s major innovation was to set his cameras in motion using custom built booms and monorails, making the audience/camera a part of the choreography. This new technique stunned and excited audiences as a part of Warner Brothers’ hit 1933 film Forty Second Street.” (2)

“Movie musicals hit their peak popularity in the 1940’s when a war weary populace flocked to the theatres for a fun and glamorous diversion. In 1945, the year of the war’s end, six of the top ten box-office hits were musicals.” (2)

“By the late 50’s, the invention of television was cutting into the popularity, and thus the profits, of Hollywood. For better or worse, the studios became reluctant to invest in original musicals and the trend of Broadway adapting movie musicals began to reverse itself as Hollywood increasingly looked to the stage for source material.” (2)

“When the big-budget Streisand musical Hello Dolly! flopped in 1969, the fate of the genre was all but sealed. Despite being another major Oscar contender, the film’s gaudy, classical musical style appeared antiquated and unappealing to general audiences, especially within a landscape full of Westerns and war films, and its major financial failure spooked studios for good. With the old censorship codes abandoned, a cynical political climate, and the sexual revolution well underway, audiences were ready and hungry for grittier, more realistic filmmaking.” (3)

“By the 1980’s, the only film characters to break out into spontaneous song were of the animated variety.” (2)

“Hollywood’s most recent attempts at returning the movie musical to its former glory have been markedly feeble, supplanting theatricality with realism and sacrificing talent for celebrity draw.” (3)

For a much more comprehensive take on the nuance of Musical decline, Lindsay Ellis has an amazing video on it!

The big similarities I see between Musicals and Superhero films is that they are both spectacle-driven. They want to make a splash and put on a loud show. At best they’re transportative, at worst they’re a whirl of flashing light and not much more. 

It’s easy to see how the heroics of the Western and the extravaganza of the Musical live on in the Superhero film. But just like the it’s ancestors, the modern heroic age is a rapidly expanding orb of fragile soap...always one recession or one year of massive flops away from bursting completely. To understand exactly when this collapse will occur, it’s important to understand that

“There are roughly three phases...

1979–1989: Superman thru Batman.

1990–1998: roughly Batman II (which technically came out in 1992) thru Blade

1999–2018: roughly X-Men (which came out in 2000) through Avengers.” (8)

“Other than a few scattered hits like Batman in 1989 and X-Men in 2000, superhero and comic book films were largely a disappointment both at the box office and in the eyes of critics. They weren’t popular, couldn’t be counted on to make money, and were mostly looked down upon by the rest of the industry. However that all changed with the release of Spiderman in 2002.” (9)

Nothing can expand forever, no profits can continue into eternity. The age of capes will end, but when? The answer may lay in the past.

“To quote Leslie Caron, one of the last studio musical stars of the 1950’s, ‘I could feel musicals were dying, because there wasn’t a renewal of stories and styles and they kept repeating the same plot. Finally the musical died because it was too expensive’” (4)

“It's not hard to deduce why Hollywood is going to stop making superhero stuff; the superhero cash-cow is heading toward burnout. Simply put, Hollywood is so obsessed with making bank that they're glossing over the details that keep audiences interested.” (6)

The film industry only learns lessons from profits or the lack thereof, and right now:

“Even in a year that has more disappointments than success stories, people will still flock to see superhero movies…” (7)

Generally though, outside of a major sequel or spin off,

“Going to the movies is becoming more and more of a rare event now that people can build cinema-quality sound and video systems in their house.” (8)“Keeping in mind that, according to the Motion Picture Association of America, roughly 80% of all moviegoers report that they are infrequent or occasional consumers, it's hard to imagine that too many people will see more than one or two of these films a year. The genre has started to compete for sales with itself. Instead of choosing between a drama, a comedy or a superhero film audiences are now choosing from a drama, a comedy or three superhero films. Most people don€™t have the money or the required interest to keep up with the rate at which studios are pumping these movies out.” (9)

So. When will the Superhero movie die? Honestly, I don’t think that’s the right question. The film industry is in a spiral, tent-pole film budgets are rocketing ever higher, more big budget films are made every year, theater attendance is at a historic low, the cost of a ticket is at record highs, and alternative distribution models that are more cost effective and convenient to the customer are more popular than ever. 

We shouldn’t be asking when the Superhero movie will fade, we should be asking when the modern cinematic theater experience is going to largely collapse. Now, fortunately, we have a video covering this very topic that you should totally check out if you’re interested!

For now though, these bloated television episodes with glossy fx and spandex-clad bums are all that’s holding the blockbuster film industry’s hand as it dangles above the cliff of technological evolution.

This has been Cinema Cemetery, digging six feet deeper into film and culture.

-Josh Evans